THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

“Housing is very hard to put in place in a number of areas. 

The NIMBY phenomenon has really taken hold in California and many other metro areas.

You think it’s protecting your area, your value — but it’s denying housing to the next generation. 

It makes it increasingly difficult for working people, even middle-income earners to buy any kind of housing,” said Ken Rosen, chairman of real estate market research firm Rosen Consulting.

Rosen said real earnings are a lot higher in secondary cities. 

He said a family may spend 25 percent of its income on housing in a smaller market, but more than 40 percent of it on housing in a major city.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

“In a lot of metro areas, the supply of new housing is constrained by very tough local zoning requirements,” said Ken Rosen, chairman of real estate market research firm Rosen Consulting.

“When it is harder to build things, it becomes more costly. 

The affordability gap widens.”

Rosen said low interest rates and stimulus checks in 2020 fueled a strong desire for homeownership, but noted that it is increasingly difficult to supply housing to meet the demand.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Ken Rosen, chairman of real estate market research firm Rosen Consulting, was the lead author of the NAR “Housing is Critical Infrastructure” report.

Rosen also is seeing people leave high-cost, high-tax markets for lower cost areas, though the cost of living in a particular area is more than just the house. 

It also involves the cost of transportation. 

Houses in rural locations may cost less but you need a car for each licensed driver. 

Yet, he sees a shift from large population coastal areas (east and west) to Sun Belt and Mountain States. 

He noted that San Francisco lost 10 percent of its population between March and November 2020.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

“Rather than thinking about a long daily commute, it might be work mostly from home and a weekly commute. 

Some trends predict that 30 percent to 40 percent of the American workforce will work two days at the office and three from home — or some kind of hybrid — that reduces daily long commutes.

 The exurbs are growing,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, said the high cost of living in or near major cities plus the concern over the pandemic and the need for more space in a home and a bigger lot — has moved growth to more outer suburban and small-town areas.

“It’s the COVID effect. 

The permit data from the second half of 2020 and the first half of 2021 shows strong growth rates for both single-family houses and apartments in lower density, lower cost areas,” he said.

“Young families have to live somewhere and they are looking farther out, for better prices — COVID accelerated those trends.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, said the profit margins for smaller scale builders and developers — the vast majority of the industry — are “not extremely high.” 

He said many of the same people advocating for more affordable and attainable housing are the same ones in favor of permit fees, taxes and impact fees that drive up the price of housing.

“Housing is a capital asset — the typical single-family home lasts 80 to 100 years. 

Rather than a high-up-front fee, finance infrastructure needed to support residential development with low-cost (municipal) bond debt,” he said.

 “This would make the entry point for homeownership lower.”

THE HOLIDAYS ARE ABOUT FAMILY

CATS ARE OUR FAMILY

HoneyBear

Little Havana has a lot of good things going for it, but one of the down sides is that it has to be one of Miami’s most-favored place by cruel people dumping unwanted pets.

We turned bad behavior into great opportunity.

Now, for nearly a decade, we have gotten dozens of cats into Miami-Dade County’s Trap/Neuter/Release program that helps cut down on the population of feral cats.

We have adopted HoneyBear, our Siamese mature cat that lives inside 24/7, divides her days between our work from home stations and spends a good bit of the night in my bed.

We have built outdoor houses, plus feeding and watering stations, for dozens of cats.

We currently have four main cats that spend most of their time on our small urban lot.

Moe is a shy Tuxie. Ginger is a ginger cat that is everyone's mom and caregiver.

CoCo Kitty is HoneyBear's Tortie daughter, too feral to want to be picked up or brought in to live with mom.

Baby is our newest love.

Sadly, his love and trust that allowed us to take him to the vet -- produced a blood test result that indicates he has feline leukemia.

He’s very healthy, a still growing not quite one-year-old boy, but we need to monitor things.

Baby spends a good chunk of the day with us inside while we continue to work from home.

He has just enough wild in him that he cries to go out at night.

We focus on the love we share with Baby and the good shelter and care we give to all the cats that pass through our lives.

Baby

For the full story, visit:

https://stevewright-1964.medium.com/the-holidays-are-about-families-86260835b245

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

“It is a complex story; I push back on the idea that there is a single solution," Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, said of ways to solve the housing crunch.

We need to add density, reform zoning, reduce regulations, recruit more diversity in the construction workforce and address impact fees,” he said, 

noting that roughly 30 percent of construction workers are women and that the industry needs to recruit a more diverse workforce to address both the labor shortage and equity.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, predicts an increase of building the so-called missing middle a way of adding density that is not high rise or out of scale. 

The term describes duplexes, rowhouses and courtyard apartments that provide housing at different price points that is compatible in scale with single-family neighborhoods. 

It supports diverse and walkable communities. 

It is “missing” because such housing was common in pre-WWII United States, but often is outlawed by zoning.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

“Each community has to look at reforming zoning laws to address the housing deficit. 

We have an increase in NIMBY and now there is BANANA (build absolutely nothing in my back yard),” 

said Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, noting that opposition to any growth at all only widens the gap between haves and have nots and increases the number of people spending most of their paycheck on shelter. 

“We have to convince the NIMBYs to be YIMBYs (yes in my back yard) that support some density.”

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, links the housing shortage to five Ls:

5) Lumber

Ninety percent of single-family homes are wood construction. 

The Trump administration raised tariffs on lumber coming from Canada to 20 percent, later cutting it back to nine percent. 

But the steep tariffs and sharp demand for materials saw the cost of lumber shoot up more than 300 percent from spring 2020 to spring 2021 — climbing to a record of more than $1,500 per thousand board feet.

Dietz said that stratospheric leap in cost can add $30,000 to $40,000 to the price of a single-family house.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, links the housing shortage to five Ls:

4) Laws (and regulations)

Dietz points to exclusionary zoning practices that require more land than the market demands. 

He said when NIMBYs (Not in My Back Yard) block small and diverse units — it crowds out the entry level buyer, the new home buyer. 

He said the choice for the developer is to build on bigger lots with more expensive homes or to build nothing at all. 

He said regulatory costs and, well-intended but onerous impact fees, drive up costs and add delays. 

Dietz said research shows that regulatory costs account for a quarter of the final price of single-family housing and a third of the cost of multifamily housing.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, links the housing shortage to five Ls:

3) Lending

Dietz said there are issues with access to mortgages, but his lending issue is with policy and market conditions that impact home builders and land developers. 

Seventy percent of homes are dependent on loans from community banks. 

Since the Great Recession, lending is much more difficult to get for land acquisition and development.

ALBERT PALLOT PARK -- CITY OF MIAMI

TOO MUCH PAVEMENT CAN DESTROY A PARK – SOME IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE BARRIER-FREE WHEELCHAIR ACCESS FOR ALL

Albert Pallot Park is a three-acre oasis on Biscayne Bay in the Edgewater Neighborhood.

It is immediately north of the Julia Tuttle Causeway, two blocks east of Biscayne Boulevard at Northeast 38th Street.

The urban park features a wheelchair-accessible paved path along the bay front and through the park.

When a developer paid more than $2 million for improvements, including a sea wall, many neighbors and activists complained about the amount of concrete.

We have fought to protect historic William Jennings Bryan Park for being paved over, so we empathize.

However, there are two sides to the story.

Much of Miami’s bay front is off limits to all and even less of it is accessible to people with disabilities.

A grand, wide, flowing path from the two accessible parking spaces to the water’s edge is exactly what is needed to make the park welcoming to all people of all abilities.

There is a huge swatch of pavement along the entire bay front of the park – and it is deep, maybe 30 feet deep.

That might be overkill. Perhaps something 12 to 15 feet deep would have left more natural grass. But paving from edge to edge of the bay front is not problematic – as it provides one of the few locations where people in power and manual wheelchairs, or scooters and rolling walkers, can all enjoy barrier-free access.

There also is a giant M made of dominoes.

We’d like to think it stands for Miami, the Magic City.

It perhaps memorializes the surname of the developer family, whose late founding father had a history of federal discrimination complaints/cases that goes against everything we believe in, in terms of equality, inclusion and diversity.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, links the housing shortage to five Ls:

2) Lots

Whether it is a single-family subdivision, an apartment block or urban infill residential, land must be available for housing and difficult zoning rules make it prohibitive to build even when land is assembled.

Dietz said land-use rules have been so restrictive, that the land development sector shrunk by 50 percent coming out of the Great Recession of more than a decade ago.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), said the housing shortage — which leads to an across-the-board affordability crisis — can be linked to five limiting factors, dubbed the five Ls:

1) Labor

There is a lack of skilled labor — the work force has aged and the industry is short at least 350,000 construction workers.

The silver lining is that residential construction gained jobs while unemployment rose during the first year of COVID. 

Because one single-family home construction employs the equivalent of three full-time workers for a year, it boosts the economy to train more workers.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said the labor shortage must be addressed. 

He said some communities are offering free or reduced community college courses that groom people for construction trade skills.

“The labor shortage doesn’t just drive up the cost of building a home — it also makes appliances and everything that comes from a factory to the inside of a home more expensive,” he observed.

Yun said the federal government should intervene with support for training in a cost-effective way.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Easier commuting can give people more flexibility in choosing where to live.

“The next round of federal legislation should have a homebuyer tax credit to address equity issues,” said NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun, noting that many people struggle to save for a down payment and that disparity often hurts people of color.

“A program of down-payment assistance could help close the gap.

Naturally it will disproportionally help those who have been left out of wealth building via homeownership and the entire nation benefits from having more accessible, affordable units.”

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Many cities have vacant properties, abandoned shopping malls, largely empty or emptying office buildings. 

Government funding could support the effort to provide housing.

NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun supports funding for more rail transportation. 

He said more frequent, more dependable commuter rail could help people live without a car or with fewer cars per household. 

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

While the COVID pandemic has created many issues, NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said it may present an affordable multifamily housing silver lining.

“The economy is recovering, but the office sector is sluggish and with the new trend of work-from-home flexibility, we are saying ‘what can we do with the empty office space?’” he said.

“Maybe it can become rental apartments. 

For many developers, the numbers aren’t there — but government funding could fill the gap and create safe, clean, affordable housing in buildings that already exist.”

“Highways and broadband are good, but can’t some of the infrastructure dollars be used to create habitable homes?

THUMBS UP TO MARRIOTT’S BRAND OF HIP URBAN HOTEL

REVIEW OF THE MOXY EAST VILLAGE

I stayed five nights for an incredibly low price at the Moxy East Village Hotel in New York.

It’s at a perfect location near Union Square transit + East Village/Lower East side dining, shopping and vibe.  

I slept soundly in a super quiet room.

I can't believe the punk rock-themed hotel -- with a popular rooftop bar and loud music at a nightclub and outdoor dining venue on same block immediately next to property -- was so tranquil and sound proofed. Bravo. 

Room small, but I only needed it for sleep.

Bed was super comfortable.

Had blackout drapes but I enjoyed wall of windows on NYC so much, I left the blinds up. 

Shower is great. No flooding. 

Sink vanity featured lots of room for storage.

I love the pegs on the wall -- I stored a dozen things on them.

Plus, there is under bed storage and locker-like storage above the flat screen TV.

The staff great and the rooftop was a cool amenity for a June visit.

The restaurant looked amazing, but didn't eat at it. 

The little outdoor space on main level was super chill and great for summer. 

Great room design -- everything I needed in less than 200 SF.

The free breakfast in the hip, rock n roll space off the lobby service is great.

I know it is difficult, especially with packaging boxes for the masses, but I wish there were a few more healthy breakfast options -- granola, cereal, more fresh fruit. 

I used to free mini fridge that I requested for storing berries, oat milk, cereal to have healthier options.

Wish wheelchair users didn't have to use an elevator every time they go from street to lobby.

It's good that there is an elevator, but it sucks that in a brand-new building, people with disabilities are segregated from the majority using the steps - and vulnerable if the equipment breaks down.

The safe was not big enough to store my expensive camera. Gotta fix that.

Overall, a grade of A…and I’m hard to please.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

“There is a strong desire for homeownership across this country, but the lack of supply is preventing too many Americans from achieving that dream,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

“We have a housing shortage in single-family housing, apartments, rental housing — it’s across the board. 

This is a problem, not only because homeownership is beneficial as far as long-term wealth building, but also because Americans are forking over a great share of their paycheck for housing costs.”

Yun said the only way to solve the issue is the boost supply. There are many challenges and solutions. 

The first issue Yun underscored is overly restrictive zoning regulations. 

He supports the right to determine the character of a neighborhood, but said far too many cities have overly restrictive zoning and that creates obstacles to building even slightly denser housing.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

The high cost of city living, along with the desire for bigger housing units on larger lots (fueled by both pandemic fears and the ability to work more from home) is shifting some demographics toward a segment that is willing to live farther out with fewer amenities in return for cheaper housing with more space.

The shortage of housing in America is critical, according to a NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR) report — “Housing is Critical Infrastructure: Social and Economic Benefits of Building More Housing.” 

The report, authored by the Rosen Consulting Group, found that over the past 20 years, growth in America’s housing inventory slowed significantly across the nation.

The NAR report states the “underbuilding gap” at 5.5 to 6.8 million housing units since 2001.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

Experts also say there’s a shortage of rental housing — which serves a strong purpose of giving people a detached unit, backyard, work-from-home space and flexibility in a 21st century workforce that is more transient for job opportunities.

There is no one culprit. 

But most economists and expert researchers agree that material costs are high, labor pools are thin and land-use policy has made it increasingly difficult and expensive to bring housing to market.

While home builders, real estate professionals and public policy experts all wrestle with issues of housing shortage, high cost of entry and skyrocketing rent burdens

(when people are spending, 40 percent, even 50 percent of their entire incomes on shelter alone) — there are other seismic changes.

THE HOUSING CRUNCH IS REAL

HOW WE GOT HERE, HOW WE ADDRESS IT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS THAT WILL IMPACT WHAT AND WHERE WE CALL HOME

When cash bidding wars take place across the nation — not for unique designer houses, but for everyday fixer uppers in humdrum neighborhoods — there’s a housing shortage. 

By any measure, for more than a decade, there has been an underproduction of housing — largely in single-family but also multifamily.

The housing shortage drives up prices.

It impacts everyone from the millennials finally ready to settle down, start a family and invest their savings — to working poor and impoverished people unable to afford rent for even the most modest of housing units in dozens of major cities.

THIS STUFF WORKS

 I’M LIVING PROOF

It’s all about flexibility, options – housing, transit and work places that meet a broad spectrum of training, talent, income and physical ability. 

The approach to development patterns and spending that Chuck Marohn (of Strong Towns) advocates for is a clear route to inclusion, equity and accessibility.

It eliminates bond issues for 3-lane roads to SprawlVille and 2 new highway lanes that never do anything to reduce traffic congestion.

It also pays a pretty nifty benefit.

If you simply eat more fresh, local, healthy food and walk around a lot (and demand more walkability and connectivity if your town lacks it) – you regain your health (physical and mental) and your future.

THIS STUFF WORKS

I’M LIVING PROOF

Building, or in most cases, rebuilding a Strong Town simply gives options.

My wife uses a wheelchair for mobility and the efficiency of a wheelchair ramp equipped van – to overcome broad gaps in transit and connectivity in Greater Miami, makes sense for us.

We live in a 100-year-old accessibility-adapted small house, on the smallest buildable lot, in dense urban neighborhood. 

So, we are proof that you don’t have to move into a condo or apartment tower to support smart urban growth.

AUTHOR WIL HAYGOOD IS A NATIONAL TREASURE

COLORIZATION, HIS LATEST BOOK, IS A MUST-READ

Wil Haygood is one of America’s finest writers.

With each book, his storytelling grows more confident. His way with words that much more enticing and entertaining.

In addition to being an outstanding newspaper journalist with the Boston Globe and Washington Post, Haygood has produced several biographies of African Americans.

Colorization – One Hundred Years of Black Films in a White World, is not a book solely focused on racism. But racism in the film industry resonates all through the book. 

And spoiler alert: institutional and obscene racism didn’t end during World War II, during the great 1960s Civil Rights Movement, not with the rise of Spike Lee and frustrating – not well into the 21st century. 

Read my full review on Medium at:

https://stevewright-1964.medium.com/author-wil-haygood-is-a-national-treasure-colorization-his-latest-book-is-a-must-read-abefc83de686

THIS STUFF WORKS

I’M LIVING PROOF

Compact development, investing in existing main streets and city corps works.

It prevents wasting millions (make that billions) of dollars on the sprawl growth game that never produces for the city budget as promised.

It works in small, medium and large towns.

It does not take your sedan away from you and force you to live in a 300 SF hipster walkup apartment over a liquor store in some blighted part of town.

THIS STUFF WORKS

I’M LIVING PROOF

Two years ago, I weighed 310 pounds.

I actually still walked quite a bit while in Europe on vacation, but my blood work produced stats of a man who should be looking at favorite cemeteries for burial rather than a plan for teaching and consulting in semi-retirement in the not-so-distant future.

I do the steps now, my joints don’t hurt.

I don’t sweat standing still.

I haven’t been sick since I started to take advantage of the urban lifestyle healthy living plan.

THIS STUFF WORKS

I’M LIVING PROOF

Instead of using two train connections, I walked farther to catch a train that would get me to within five blocks of my destination. 

I used the ferry to go to Long Island City and run along all the relatively-new public space and parks that allow one to run along the East River with spectacular skyline views to the west.

We are very close to transitioning from a two car to one car family.

The payoff for all of this?

Today, I weigh 175 pounds. 

I just had a physical and dozens of measures of health are in the upper (good) percentile for a 55+ man.